Something I haven’t spoken about much is my brief stint as an profitable online poker player back in the mid 2000s.

It was such a short stint (around a year) that I have almost totally forgotten about that chapter in my life but after speaking with a guy who is a poker professional recently it hit me how my flirtation with poker was actually a big help when it came to learning football trading.

It all began back during the Poker boom and like many I was sucked into joining full tilt or Party Poker after they were heavily advertised back then. (You remember those late night channel 4 shows?)

Anyway, I found my edge in playing short handed sit and go tournaments.

I couldn’t make money in the cash games or the bigger tournaments but those 6 handed tournaments were extremely lucrative for me and I made some good money from those for a good while.
I eventually quit poker since I couldn’t handle the swings mentally but all that is another story for another day.

Anyway, the main reason I was able to become profitable at that side of poker was after getting some advice from a poker PRO at the time.

He told me “In Poker, you should look to do the opposite of what everyone else is doing. If everyone at the table is playing loose you need to play tight. Then if everyone is playing tight you need to play loose.”

And he advised me that applying this strategy to the sit and go tournaments was the best way to make long term profits from it.

You see in the start of the tournament when everyone has loads of chips you see most people playing quite loose and he said this is the time to be tight. Wait till you get a good hand and the odds are in your favour then maximise your winning hand.

He then said later on in the tournament when you are on the “bubble” (the money making end of things) you will see everyone go tight. This is because the money is now “real” and within their grasp so now there is a big fear of losing.

He said this is the time to go for the kill and start playing loose.

He said people are so scared of losing that at this stage they will often fold winning hands because of their fear of losing. (of course they don’t know it’s a winning hand).

Anyway, this simple principle worked very well for me when I was playing poker. It was a fun time but also the wrong time in my life to be embarking on a poker career since I had so much else going on.

But it is only now that it hits me that this advice is very similar to the Warren Buffet quote of “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.

And thinking back, this has almost always been my approach to football trading. Go against the markets and the opposite of what everyone else is doing.

If the markets are expecting goals that is when you will often see me getting involved in the Under 2.5 Goals market.

If a favourite has got off to a slow start and their price is drifting in-play because everyone is laying them. This is when I look to back them.

If a team is winning most punters are backing that team whereas I am looking for reasons to LAY them.

And so on.

Either way, there is enough clear evidence to show you that it is easier to be successful doing the OPPOSITE of what everyone else does.

I mean Warren Buffet built a billion dollar empire on this principle alone.

So there is some food for thought as you pick out your bets and trades for the weekend.

And remember, poker is a SKILL game just like football trading. So if you want to improve that skill then I am opening the doors to my premium football video course, Ultimate Football Trading later this month.

Get on the waiting list if you want to get an invite to join when they day comes by clicking here!

To your success Refactual

Sports Trading Life


Just remembered another good saying, “If you think like everyone else, you end up like everyone else.”  Therefore, if you want to become part of the 1% you have to avoid thinking like the 99%!